World Cup 2026 Scenario Simulator
Build a scenario.See the chances shift.
Start from the default 2026 projection, then change groups, qualifiers, and knockout results to compare scenarios.
Default projectionEditable stagesScenario score
Independent fan-made scenario simulator. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.
Scenario Snapshot
Your Scenario
Current score band: Likely scenario. Make one change to compare scenarios.
How to read this
The score combines how likely the scenario looks with how much uncertainty remains. It is not an exact probability or exact chance. As outcomes become known, the score can move closer to 100. Current and default scores match until you make an edit.
Scenario builder
Edit any stage. The scenario stays flexible.
Jump to a section, make a change, and keep adjusting as the score read updates.
Probability SnapshotStale snapshot
Scenario EngineReady
Updated2026-07-20 00:57 UTC
SimulatorIndependent
Scenario data stale
Step 1
Group Stage
Drag team rows to test a different scenario. Badges show chance to qualify.
12 groups
Focused group editor
Choose a group, then drag team rows.
Grab anywhere on a team row to reorder. Arrow controls remain available for precise or keyboard edits.
Group A
Third-place qualifierMexico
South Africa
Korea Republic
Czechia
Group A
Third-place qualifierMexico
South Africa
Korea Republic
Czechia
Group B
Third-place qualifierCanada
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Qatar
Switzerland
Group C
Third-place qualifierBrazil
Morocco
Haiti
Scotland
Group D
Third-place qualifierUSA
Paraguay
Australia
Türkiye
Step 2
Third-Place Qualifiers
Choose the eight third-place teams that qualify. Badges show chance to qualify.
8/8 selected
Qualified Third-Place Teams
8/8 selectedAvailable Third-Place Teams
4 availableRemove one selected team first.
Step 3
Knockout Bracket
Pan for context. Zoom for detail. Badges show chance to qualify.
Knockout picks
Pick outcomes by round
Open a round, pick winners, and watch the scenario score react. Card badges show chance to qualify.
Round of 32First knockout choices16 matches
M73Default
M74Default
M75Default
M76Default
M77Default
M78Default
M79User scenario
M80Default
M81Default
M82Default
M83Default
M84User scenario
M85Default
M86User scenario
M87Default
M88Default
Round of 16Eight knockout choices8 matches
M89Default
M90Default
M91Default
M92Default
M93User scenario
M94Default
M95User scenario
M96Default
QuarterfinalFour scenario-shaping matches4 matches
M97Default
M98User scenario
M99Default
M100User scenario
SemifinalWho reaches the final stage2 matches
M101Default
M102Default
FinalChampion and bronze decisions2 matches
M104Default
M103Default
Chance Leaders
Champion Outlook
Your scenario champion chances first, with the default scenario beside them for context.
Ready
Your scenario leaderSpain
Your scenario94%Default scenario94%
- 1SpainESPYour scenario94%Default scenario94%
- 2EnglandENGYour scenario1%Default scenario1%
- 3BrazilBRAYour scenario1%Default scenario1%
- 4GermanyGERYour scenario1%Default scenario1%
- 5FranceFRAYour scenario1%Default scenario1%
- 6NetherlandsNEDYour scenario0%Default scenario0%
- 7CanadaCANYour scenario0%Default scenario0%
- 8PortugalPORYour scenario0%Default scenario0%
- 9MexicoMEXYour scenario0%Default scenario0%
- 10UruguayURUYour scenario0%Default scenario0%
Overview
Full bracket map
Use this for the tournament shape; the match stack stays the main editor. Rotate your phone or open full-screen for a wider view.
Drag to pan.Pinch or trackpad-zoom for detail.Zoom 84%
Impact
Scenario Shifts
Compared with the default projection.
7 tracked changes
Your direct edits
1Group H order changedGroup edit
Default scenario
URU > CPV > KSA > ESP
Your scenario
ESP > URU > CPV > KSA
Bracket consequences
6M79 · Round of 32Scenario update
Default scenario
Mexico vs Saudi Arabia
Your scenario
Mexico vs Cabo Verde
M84 · Round of 32Scenario update
Default scenario
Uruguay vs Austria
Your scenario
Spain vs Austria
M86 · Round of 32Scenario update
Default scenario
Algeria vs Cabo Verde
Your scenario
Algeria vs Uruguay
M93 · Round of 16Scenario update
Default scenario
Congo DR vs Uruguay
Your scenario
Congo DR vs Austria
M95 · Round of 16Scenario update
Default scenario
Algeria vs Paraguay
Your scenario
Uruguay vs Paraguay
M98 · QuarterfinalScenario update
Default scenario
Uruguay vs USA
Your scenario
Congo DR vs USA
Chance Leaders
Champion Outlook
Your scenario champion chances first, with the default scenario beside them for context.
Ready
Your scenario leaderSpain
Your scenario94%Default scenario94%
- 1SpainESPYour scenario94%Default scenario94%
- 2EnglandENGYour scenario1%Default scenario1%
- 3BrazilBRAYour scenario1%Default scenario1%
- 4GermanyGERYour scenario1%Default scenario1%
- 5FranceFRAYour scenario1%Default scenario1%
- 6NetherlandsNEDYour scenario0%Default scenario0%
- 7CanadaCANYour scenario0%Default scenario0%
- 8PortugalPORYour scenario0%Default scenario0%
- 9MexicoMEXYour scenario0%Default scenario0%
- 10UruguayURUYour scenario0%Default scenario0%