Soccer Scenario Lab

World Cup 2026 Scenario Simulator

Build the path.Watch probabilities move.

Explore World Cup scenarios using probability inputs from available team and player performance signals, match data, prediction-market probabilities, and tournament rules. Change the path and watch the probability picture move.

Group pathsKnockout choicesProbability shifts
Independent fan-made scenario simulator. Probabilities are estimates, not guarantees.
Probability SnapshotLive snapshot
Scenario EngineReady
Updated2026-06-02 07:24 UTC
SimulatorIndependent

Default view

Baseline Path

All three steps are open below. Collapse any step when you want a cleaner view.

Live nowDefault projectionNo direct edits
Edits0
Path Shifts0
3rd-Place Routes8/8

Group Stage, Third-Place Routes, and knockout choices update the path below.

Step 1

Group Stage

Move teams to test a different path.

12 groups

Group A

Third-place route
1
Mexico
MEXQualify93%
2
Czechia
CZEQualify71%
3
Korea Republic
KORQualify65%Third-place route
4
South Africa
RSAQualify39%

Group B

Third-place route
1
Switzerland
SUIQualify92%
2
Canada
CANQualify81%
3
Bosnia and Herzegovina
BIHQualify66%Third-place route
4
Qatar
QATQualify24%

Group C

Third-place route
1
Brazil
BRAQualify97%
2
Morocco
MARQualify85%
3
Scotland
SCOQualify72%Third-place route
4
Haiti
HAIQualify11%

Group D

Third-place route
1
USA
USAQualify86%
2
Türkiye
TURQualify81%
3
Paraguay
PARQualify65%Third-place route
4
Australia
AUSQualify48%

Group E

Third-place route
1
Germany
GERQualify96%
2
Ecuador
ECUQualify87%
3
Côte d’Ivoire
CIVQualify76%Third-place route
4
Curaçao
CUWQualify11%

Group F

Third-place route
1
Netherlands
NEDQualify91%
2
Japan
JPNQualify78%
3
Sweden
SWEQualify65%Third-place route
4
Tunisia
TUNQualify39%

Group G

1
Belgium
BELQualify96%
2
Egypt
EGYQualify69%
3
IR Iran
IRNQualify57%
4
New Zealand
NZLQualify34%

Group H

1
Spain
ESPQualify98%
2
Uruguay
URUQualify87%
3
Saudi Arabia
KSAQualify42%
4
Cabo Verde
CPVQualify29%

Group I

Third-place route
1
France
FRAQualify96%
2
Norway
NORQualify84%
3
Senegal
SENQualify70%Third-place route
4
Iraq
IRQQualify16%

Group J

Third-place route
1
Argentina
ARGQualify96%
2
Austria
AUTQualify83%
3
Algeria
ALGQualify64%Third-place route
4
Jordan
JORQualify19%

Group K

1
Portugal
PORQualify96%
2
Colombia
COLQualify89%
3
Congo DR
CODQualify45%
4
Uzbekistan
UZBQualify34%

Group L

1
England
ENGQualify97%
2
Croatia
CROQualify82%
3
Ghana
GHAQualify55%
4
Panama
PANQualify27%

Step 2

Third-Place Routes

Choose the eight third-place teams that enter the knockout path.

8/8 selected

Step 3

Knockout Path

Pan for context. Zoom for detail.

32 matches
Drag to pan.Tap i for match info.Zoom 84%
Round of 32
M74Default
M77Default
M73Default
M75Default
M83Default
M84Default
M81Default
M82Default
Round of 16
M89Default
M90Default
M93Default
M94Default
Quarterfinal
M97Default
M98Default
Semifinal
M101Default
Finals
M104Default
M103Default
Semifinal
M102Default
Quarterfinal
M99Default
M100Default
Round of 16
M91Default
M92Default
M95Default
M96Default
Round of 32
M76Default
M78Default
M79Default
M80Default
M86Default
M88Default
M85Default
M87Default

Impact

Path Shifts

Compared with the default projection.

Default view
No shifts yet.

Edit groups, routes, or winners to see the path move.

Probability Leaders

Champion Outlook

The top teams by direct champion probability, with final chance for context.

Ready
  1. 1FranceFRAChampion Chance17%Final Chance29%
  2. 2SpainESPChampion Chance16%Final Chance31%
  3. 3EnglandENGChampion Chance11%Final Chance22%
  4. 4PortugalPORChampion Chance10%Final Chance19%
  5. 5ArgentinaARGChampion Chance9%Final Chance19%
  6. 6BrazilBRAChampion Chance8%Final Chance21%
  7. 7GermanyGERChampion Chance6%Final Chance14%
  8. 8NetherlandsNEDChampion Chance4%Final Chance11%
  9. 9NorwayNORChampion Chance3%Final Chance7%
  10. 10BelgiumBELChampion Chance2%Final Chance6%

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